By Renee Duff, Meteorologist for AccuWeather.com
AccuWeather Global Headquarters – September 10, 2017 – AccuWeather reports after unleashing life-threatening conditions across Florida, Irma will make a beeline for the Southeast early this week, leading to severe flooding problems from Georgia and Alabama to South Carolina and Tennessee.
Given Irma’s expected track along the west coast of the Florida Peninsula, the threat of a direct landfall between Georgia and the Carolinas has passed. However, impacts will still be devastating in parts of the Southeast.
Rain and tropical-storm-force winds will pick up in Georgia and South Carolina as early as late Sunday.
Wet and windy weather will expand into eastern Alabama, including Birmingham, southeastern North Carolina and the southern Appalachians on Monday into Tuesday.
Lengthy power outages, flooding and major delays and disruptions are possible in these areas.
Despite Irma tracking along the west coast of Florida, water will still surge toward the Georgia, South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina coasts, threatening to cause coastal flooding in places such as Savannah, Charleston and Myrtle Beach.
These locations will also be on the northeastern side of the storm, heightening the risk of waterspouts and tornadoes.
Wind gusts between 60 and 80 mph across Georgia will easily be enough to snap trees and power lines. In southern Georgia, winds could gust up to 100 mph.
Gusts of 40 to 60 mph in South Carolina will lead to damage to weaker trees and some power lines. Residents or those who have evacuated from Florida to these areas should prepare for possible power outages.
Irma will continue to move to the north and west early next week, dissipating to a tropical depression and eventually a tropical rainstorm over Georgia and Tennessee.
While widespread damaging winds will become less of a concern farther inland, the threat for flooding will mount as Irma’s rain expands.
Heavy rain is forecast to spread inland toward the southern Appalachians from Monday to Tuesday, potentially leading to extensive flooding due to the mountainous and hilly terrain of northeastern Georgia, western South Carolina, eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina.
There is concern for serious flooding problems across Georgia and the Carolinas from Irma, according to Dr. Joel N. Myers, founder, president and chairman of AccuWeather.
Mudslides and road washouts will be possible. Small streams and rivers could overflow out of their banks and flood neighboring land and homes. At the very least, disruptions to travel and outdoor plans will occur.
Atlanta; Columbia, South Carolina; and Knoxville, Tennessee, could endure wind gusts to tropical storm strength in addition to the rainfall. Sporadic power outages can occur as the soil becomes saturated, making it easier for the wind to topple trees and powerlines.
Irma’s rain will spread inland toward western Tennessee, Kentucky and northern Mississippi on Tuesday.
The amount of rain that falls will lessen significantly beyond the Southeast as Irma runs into a large area of dry air over the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and Northeast. Flooding will become more of a concern on the local level.
Still, locations such as Louisville, Kentucky; Memphis and Nashville, Tennessee; Cincinnati; Charleston, West Virginia; Raleigh, North Carolina; Richmond, Virginia; Pittsburgh; Washington, D.C.; Baltimore and Philadelphia, should anticipate wet, dreary and cool conditions around Tuesday and Wednesday. Travel disruptions can mount during this time.
Hurricane Irma batters Florida with catastrophic storm surge, wind and rain
AccuWeather Global Headquarters – September 10, 2017 – AccuWeather reports after blasting the northern Caribbean, deadly Hurricane Irma is now moving into Florida spreading destructive winds, flooding rain and inundating seas.
“Unfortunately, there is no way the United States is going to avoid another catastrophic weather event,” Dr. Joel N. Myers, founder, president and chairman of AccuWeather said.
“There will be massive damage in Florida. [It will be] the worst single hurricane to hit Florida since Hurricane Andrew in 1992,” Myers said.
Preparations should already be completed across the Sunshine State.
Irma is currently bringing severe and life-threatening impacts to all of the Florida Keys and South Florida, and will spread those impacts farther north across the Florida Peninsula. Cities at risk include Tampa, Fort Myers, Naples, Sarasota and Miami.
“Irma remains a very powerful and destructive hurricane,” AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
After the center of Irma tracked along the northern coast of Cuba Saturday morning, Irma briefly became a Category 3 hurricane. Early Sunday morning, it again became a Category 4 storm.
Hurricane Irma officially made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane at Cudjoe Key in the lower Florida Keys at 9:10 a.m. EDT Sunday.
As of 11: 30 a.m. EDT Sunday, the center of Hurricane Irma is about 70 miles south-southeast of Naples, Florida, 160 miles south-southeast of Sarasota, Florida, and 200 miles south-southeast of Tampa, Florida.
It may intensify further over very warm waters north of the lower Florida Keys before the eye brushes the Gulf Coast of Florida late Sunday. Another landfall is expected across southwestern Florida as a Category 4 hurricane.
Irma may return over water for a brief time afterwards and make another landfall as a Category 2 hurricane southeast of Tallahassee, Florida, Monday morning.
Wind gusts may exceed 160 mph from Fort Myers southward to Everglades National Park, and could lead to a swath of catastrophic damage, including roofs getting ripped off and severe structural damage.
“Impacts within the projected path of Irma include life-threatening wind, storm surge and flooding rainfall hazards,” Kottlowski said.
The outer rain bands of Irma moved onshore in southeastern Florida on Friday night into Saturday. Winds strengthened on Saturday evening with gusts to 75 mph over South Florida.
Conditions will continue to deteriorate across central and South Florida Sunday. Rain and hurricane-force winds will intensify quickly.
As Irma travels northward, torrential rainfall and high winds will increase from south to north across the peninsula into Monday.
The largest storm surge will occur near and directly to the east of where the center of Irma tracks, which puts the southwestern Florida coast at greatest risk of inundation.
However, coastal flooding will threaten both sides of the coast as a storm surge is expected to slam Tampa Bay, Miami and Melbourne. Some of the highest surge will affect Naples, Bonita Springs, Port Charlotte and Fort Myers.
“It’s a monster hurricane out there — it’s bringing along with it something to be feared,” Myers said, referring to the “extremely angry ocean” that Irma has been churning for so long.
Irma had sustained 185-mph winds for 37 hours, the longest any cyclone in the world has maintained such intensity. Super Typhoon Haiyan previously set the record in 2013 when it maintained winds at that level for 24 hours.
“Rainfall across the peninsula will average 10 to 15 inches with locally higher amounts, which can lead to significant flooding issues,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Alyson Hoegg said.
Poor drainage areas will be particularly susceptible to flooding from Irma’s torrential rainfall.
Much of southwestern Florida will be buffeted by wind gusts of 100 to 160 mph, which can easily knock down power lines and trees and cause significant to catastrophic damage to roofs and structures.
Power could be out for weeks in some communities.
Downtown Miami will be spared from the highest winds; however, occasional wind gusts between 80 and 100 mph could bring down trees and power lines and cause destruction to mobile homes.
Irma’s proximity to the warm Gulf of Mexico as it moves northward along the west coast of Florida may help it maintain hurricane intensity by the time it reaches northern Florida on Monday. Tallahassee and Jacksonville are likely to get battered by strong winds and flooding rainfall during this time.
“Irma could track far enough west of Florida that the center remains over the Gulf of Mexico and away from the coast,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tom Kines said.
If Irma tracks farther west, then it will interact with warmer water for a longer period of time, which could lead to even further intensification. Strengthening could increase impacts along the western coast of Florida and the severity of impacts across the Florida Panhandle.
However, this scenario would also lead to less impacts along the eastern coast of Florida, from Jacksonville to Miami.
Isolated tornadoes will threaten areas on the northeast side of the storm, which will put much of Florida at risk for further damage should a tornado strike.
“Any land within 185 miles of the Irma’s center could see damage and any place within 50 to 60 miles of the center could experience catastrophic damage,” Kottlowski said.
The citrus crop could be seriously damaged by the storm due to the long-duration of intense winds.
Ripple-effect travel delays will be felt across the country, in not only domestic but also international travel, according to Myers.
Preparations for the storm should not end in Florida as the Southeast will be next in line to face Irma’s wrath.